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Poisson model rates Boulogne at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Boulogne and Clermont Foot meet at Stade de la Libération in Ligue 2, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 20 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Clermont Foot (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.45 xG and Clermont Foot 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Clermont Foot attack 0.803 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.118. Data: 0 Boulogne games / 34 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Boulogne 47% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 27%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Clermont Foot 3.70. Boulogne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Boulogne at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boulogne if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

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