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Shock result as Boulogne defy the odds to beat Bastia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Boulogne beat Bastia 1-0 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 0.81 xG and Bastia 0.92 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bastia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.72 / defence 1.20 against Bastia attack 0.71 / defence 0.90, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boulogne 30% | Draw 34% | Bastia 36%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Boulogne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 50%, Bastia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boulogne's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Bastia's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Boulogne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Boulogne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights