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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Annecy edge out Boulogne 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Boulogne 1-2 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.30 xG and Annecy 2.10 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.89 / defence 1.46 against Annecy attack 1.17 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boulogne 22% | Draw 24% | Annecy 54%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 47%, Annecy 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boulogne's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Annecy's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Boulogne 1.15 PPG, Annecy 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights