Bordeaux 0-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 36%, yet in-form Guingamp provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bordeaux vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Matmut-Atlantique plays host to Bordeaux versus Guingamp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 27 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Bordeaux (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bordeaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Bordeaux have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Guingamp are 1.00 PPG clear of Bordeaux in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bordeaux 62% and Guingamp 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 62% | Guingamp 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.09 xG and Guingamp 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 0.750 / defence 0.880 | Guingamp attack 1.121 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.093. Bordeaux's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Bordeaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Bordeaux games / 42 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 36% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 35%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Guingamp 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Guingamp (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bordeaux 40% | Guingamp 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 36% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Bordeaux 1.09 / Guingamp 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 0.750 / def 0.880 | Guingamp attack 1.121 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Guingamp xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Guingamp kick off?
Bordeaux vs Guingamp kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Guingamp?
Bordeaux 0 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Bordeaux vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Guingamp part of?
Bordeaux vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 36% chance of winning, Guingamp a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bordeaux and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and Guingamp in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Guingamp (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bordeaux's attack at 0.75x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.12x) against Bordeaux's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
36%
2.81
30%
3.39
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.17
1.08
Guingamp xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
12%
8.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.08 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Bordeaux have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 8W 15D 19L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bordeaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp's form line: 17W 14D 11L from 42 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bordeaux.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bordeaux have posted 0.95 PPG from 21 outings (4W 8D 9L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 7W 7D 7L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bordeaux are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.40 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Guingamp in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 8W 15D 19L in their last 42 games (0.93 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 17W 14D 11L in their last 42 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 0.95 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bordeaux have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bordeaux
1
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 2, Guingamp have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Bordeaux 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Guingamp?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 62%, Guingamp 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bordeaux) and 48% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux have failed to score in 33% of games; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Bordeaux's games and 52% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bordeaux's recent games and 48% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Guingamp tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Bordeaux 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Bordeaux 0-1 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.09 xG and Guingamp 1.08 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bordeaux fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 0.75 / defence 0.88 against Guingamp attack 1.12 / defence 1.26, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 36% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 35%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 62%, Guingamp 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.