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Bastia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Saint Etienne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bastia beat Saint Etienne 2-0 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.70 xG and Saint Etienne 1.02 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bastia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Saint Etienne landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.63 / defence 1.01 against Saint Etienne attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 63/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bastia 23% | Draw 36% | Saint Etienne 41%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Bastia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 30%, Saint Etienne 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bastia's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Saint Etienne's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bastia 1.10 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights