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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Bastia 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat Bastia 2-3 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.48 xG and Rodez 1.16 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Rodez outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.01 / defence 1.10 against Rodez attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bastia 44% | Draw 26% | Rodez 30%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 35%, Rodez 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bastia's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Rodez's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bastia 1.25 PPG, Rodez 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights