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Montpellier cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bastia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Montpellier beat Bastia 0-2 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.99 xG and Montpellier 0.79 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bastia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Montpellier outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Montpellier attack 0.64 / defence 0.96, drawn from 52/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bastia 39% | Draw 33% | Montpellier 28%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Montpellier win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 33%, Montpellier 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bastia's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Montpellier's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.77. Form was overturned, with Montpellier winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Montpellier (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights