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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bastia and Metz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 21, as Bastia and Metz drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.25 xG and Metz 0.62 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.15 / defence 0.87 against Metz attack 0.71 / defence 0.82, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bastia 51% | Draw 30% | Metz 19%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 43%, Metz 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bastia's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Metz's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bastia 1.30 PPG, Metz 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights