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Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out Martigues 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bastia beat Martigues 1-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.40 xG and Martigues 0.67 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.09 / defence 0.81 against Martigues attack 0.78 / defence 1.04, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bastia 55% | Draw 28% | Martigues 18%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 32%, Martigues 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bastia's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Martigues's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Martigues (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights