Bastia 0-0 Lorient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 48%, yet in-form Lorient provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bastia vs Lorient fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bastia and Lorient meet at Stade Armand-Césari in Ligue 2 (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bastia's record over their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bastia at home: 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lorient (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Lorient's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Lorient arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Bastia — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lorient — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 49% versus Lorient 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 43% | Lorient 64%). Note also that Lorient surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Bastia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.42 xG and Lorient 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.903 / defence 0.932 | Lorient attack 0.960 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.082. Data: built from Bastia's last 50 games and Lorient's last 13.
Result probabilities: Bastia 48% | Draw 27% | Lorient 26%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.10 | Draw 3.73 | Lorient 3.90. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lorient (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bastia 60% (last 10 home games) | Lorient 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 14 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 48% | Draw 27% | Lorient 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Bastia 1.42 / Lorient 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.903 / def 0.932 | Lorient attack 0.960 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Bastia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Lorient xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bastia vs Lorient FAQs
What time does Bastia vs Lorient kick off?
Bastia vs Lorient kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Lorient?
Bastia 0 - 0 Lorient.
Where is Bastia vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Lorient part of?
Bastia vs Lorient is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 14) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 48% chance of winning, Lorient a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bastia and Lorient will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Bastia vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bastia's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Lorient's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Lorient's attack (0.96x) against Bastia's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Bastia's last 50 games and Lorient's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.73
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.39
0.97
Lorient xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bastia vs Lorient Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bastia and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Bastia and 0.97 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Lorient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Bastia have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 16W 15D 16L record — D-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Lorient's form line: 15W 10D 22L from 47 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Bastia against 1.17 for Lorient. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bastia have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 24 home games (9W 9D 6L).
On the road, Lorient have gone 5W 6D 13L from their last 24 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bastia are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 1.47 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Lorient
Blended
Bastia (Home) vs Lorient (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bastia
Blended
Lorient
Blended
❓ Bastia vs Lorient Form FAQs
What form are Bastia and Lorient in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 16W 15D 16L in their last 47 games (1.34 PPG), while Lorient have gone 15W 10D 22L in their last 47 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Lorient away?
Bastia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.50 PPG; Lorient away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Bastia or Lorient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Lorient in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bastia
1
Draws
1
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Bastia vs Lorient H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Lorient?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Bastia have won 0, Lorient have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bastia and Lorient last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Lorient 4-0 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Lorient?
Lorient have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 46%, Lorient 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bastia) and 58% (Lorient).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 33% of games; Lorient in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bastia vs Lorient Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bastia and Lorient matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bastia's recent matches and 50% of Lorient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bastia and Lorient matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bastia's recent games and 58% of Lorient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Lorient matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Bastia's recent matches and 62% of Lorient's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Lorient finished level at 0-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.42 xG and Lorient 0.97 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bastia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lorient landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.90 / defence 0.93 against Lorient attack 0.96 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 48% | Draw 27% | Lorient 26%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 43%, Lorient 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lorient's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.34 PPG, Lorient 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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