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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Bastia run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Laval.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bastia beat Laval 5-2 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.24 xG and Laval 0.69 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Bastia beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Laval outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.02 / defence 0.71 against Laval attack 0.90 / defence 0.88, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bastia 49% | Draw 30% | Laval 21%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 39%, Laval 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bastia's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Laval's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bastia 1.37 PPG, Laval 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Laval (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights