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Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bastia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Bastia 1-3 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.44 xG and Guingamp 1.02 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against Guingamp attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bastia 47% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 27%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 36%, Guingamp 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bastia's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Guingamp's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bastia 1.36 PPG, Guingamp 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights