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Bastia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Guingamp.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bastia beat Guingamp 3-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.20 xG and Guingamp 0.76 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bastia beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.83 / defence 0.88 against Guingamp attack 0.86 / defence 1.06, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bastia 46% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 24%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 42%, Guingamp 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bastia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Guingamp's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bastia 1.32 PPG, Guingamp 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights