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Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bastia and Estac Troyes finished level at 0-0 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.84 xG and Estac Troyes 1.06 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bastia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.71 / defence 1.03 against Estac Troyes attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bastia 28% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 40%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 31%, Estac Troyes 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bastia's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bastia 1.16 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights