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Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bastia and Dunkerque finished level at 0-0 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.50 xG and Dunkerque 1.28 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bastia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Dunkerque landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.05 / defence 1.22 against Dunkerque attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bastia 42% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 32%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 36%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bastia's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Dunkerque's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights