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Prediction vindicated as Boulogne edge out Bastia 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Boulogne beat Bastia 0-1 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.72 xG and Boulogne 0.99 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.63 / defence 1.02 against Boulogne attack 0.82 / defence 0.99, drawn from 59/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bastia 25% | Draw 36% | Boulogne 40%, with Boulogne to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 29%, Boulogne 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bastia's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Boulogne's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bastia 0.82 PPG, Boulogne 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boulogne win broke the near-deadlock. Boulogne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights