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Dominant Bastia run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Ajaccio.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bastia beat Ajaccio 4-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.34 xG and Ajaccio 0.61 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Bastia beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.99 / defence 0.89 against Ajaccio attack 0.65 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bastia 54% | Draw 30% | Ajaccio 16%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 44%, Ajaccio 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bastia's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ajaccio's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bastia 1.33 PPG, Ajaccio 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Ajaccio (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights