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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Annecy 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat Annecy 1-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.38 xG and Rodez 0.97 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rodez outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.22 / defence 0.81 against Rodez attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 44% | Draw 31% | Rodez 24%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Rodez win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 45%, Rodez 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Rodez's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.54 PPG, Rodez 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights