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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Annecy and Reims share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy and Reims finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.81 xG and Reims 0.98 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Annecy fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against Reims attack 0.84 / defence 1.29, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 57% | Draw 23% | Reims 20%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 34%, Reims 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Reims's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.45 PPG, Reims 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights