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Poisson rates Annecy at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Reims encounter.

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Match Analysis

Annecy host Reims at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Annecy have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Reims have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Annecy have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Trading Patterns

Annecy in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Reims in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 40% versus Reims 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 34% | Reims 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.81 xG and Reims 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.093 / defence 1.065 | Reims attack 0.837 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.102. Reims bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Annecy games / 4 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Annecy 57% | Draw 23% | Reims 20%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Reims 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Annecy (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 60% | Reims 30%.

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