🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat RED Star FC 93 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat RED Star FC 93 2-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.02 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.09 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.07 / defence 0.86 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.04 / defence 0.82, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 33% | Draw 30% | RED Star FC 93 37%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 41%, RED Star FC 93 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.45 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights