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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Annecy run riot with a 5-1 hammering of PAU.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat PAU 5-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.37 xG and PAU 1.01 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.96 / defence 0.83 against PAU attack 1.03 / defence 1.17, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 43% | Draw 31% | PAU 26%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 43%, PAU 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

PAU's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.49 PPG, PAU 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights