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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Annecy 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris FC beat Annecy 2-3 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 0.94 xG and Paris FC 0.99 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Paris FC outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Paris FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.84, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 33% | Draw 32% | Paris FC 36%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 50%, Paris FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Paris FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.37 PPG, Paris FC 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights