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Shock result as Nancy defy the odds to beat Annecy 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nancy beat Annecy 1-2 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.39 xG and Nancy 1.05 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Nancy outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Nancy attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 45% | Draw 27% | Nancy 28%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Nancy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 33%, Nancy 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Nancy's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.33 PPG, Nancy 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nancy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nancy scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights