🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Annecy at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Nancy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Nancy make the trip to Stade Gaston-Gérard to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Tuesday 23 September 2025 at 19:30 UTC.

Form

Annecy (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Annecy have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stade Gaston-Gérard — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Nancy have collected 1.33 PPG across 6 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Nancy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Nancy have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Annecy against 1.33 for Nancy. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Trading Data

Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Nancy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 50% versus Nancy 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 33% | Nancy 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.39 xG and Nancy 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.008 / defence 1.051 | Nancy attack 0.856 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.164. Data: 40 Annecy games / 6 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Annecy 45% | Draw 27% | Nancy 28%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Nancy 3.57. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 60% | Nancy 33%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.