Annecy 1-2 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Nancy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nancy make the trip to Stade Gaston-Gérard to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Tuesday 23 September 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Annecy (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Annecy have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stade Gaston-Gérard — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nancy have collected 1.33 PPG across 6 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Nancy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Nancy have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Annecy against 1.33 for Nancy. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nancy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 50% versus Nancy 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 33% | Nancy 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.39 xG and Nancy 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.008 / defence 1.051 | Nancy attack 0.856 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.164. Data: 40 Annecy games / 6 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 45% | Draw 27% | Nancy 28%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Nancy 3.57. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 60% | Nancy 33%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Sep 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 45% | Draw 27% | Nancy 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Annecy 1.39 / Nancy 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.008 / def 1.051 | Nancy attack 0.856 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Annecy (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Nancy xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Nancy kick off?
Annecy vs Nancy kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 23 September 2025 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Nancy?
Annecy 1 - 2 Nancy.
Where is Annecy vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Annecy vs Nancy part of?
Annecy vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 45% chance of winning, Nancy a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Annecy and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Nancy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and Nancy in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Nancy (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.17 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Annecy's attack at 1.01x the league average against Nancy's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nancy's attack (0.86x) against Annecy's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.72
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.44
1.05
Nancy xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
7%
14.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Annecy and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Annecy and 1.05 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Annecy's recent record stands at 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nancy, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 2L across 6 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nancy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Annecy against 1.33 for Nancy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Nancy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Nancy in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Nancy have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Have Annecy or Nancy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Nancy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Annecy
0
Draws
1
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Nancy?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 1, Nancy have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Nancy 1-5 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 50%, Nancy 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Annecy) and 50% (Nancy).
On the defensive side: Nancy in 33%; Annecy have failed to score in 33% of games; Nancy in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Nancy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Annecy's recent matches and 33% of Nancy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Annecy's recent games and 50% of Nancy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Nancy tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Nancy in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nancy defy the odds to beat Annecy 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nancy beat Annecy 1-2 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.39 xG and Nancy 1.05 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Nancy outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Nancy attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 45% | Draw 27% | Nancy 28%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Nancy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 33%, Nancy 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Nancy's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.33 PPG, Nancy 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nancy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nancy scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.