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Stalemate at Annecy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy and Montpellier finished level at 0-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.04 xG and Montpellier 0.75 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.08 / defence 0.89 against Montpellier attack 0.74 / defence 0.83, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 40% | Draw 36% | Montpellier 24%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 43%, Montpellier 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Montpellier's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights