Annecy vs Metz – Match Report

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Stalemate at Annecy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 16, as Annecy and Metz drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.58 xG and Metz 0.67 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.11 / defence 0.78 against Metz attack 0.88 / defence 1.01, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 59% | Draw 25% | Metz 16%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 55%, Metz 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Metz's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.39 PPG, Metz 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights