Annecy vs Laval – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Annecy welcome Laval to Parc des Sports. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Laval stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Laval have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Annecy 1.30 PPG, Laval 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Annecy, 2 for Laval and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Laval in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 56% versus Laval 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 58% | Laval 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.43 xG and Laval 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.877 / defence 1.096 | Laval attack 0.878 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.358. Laval bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Annecy games / 45 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 40% | Draw 26% | Laval 34%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Laval 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 60% | Laval 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 4 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 40% | Draw 26% | Laval 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Annecy 1.43 / Laval 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.877 / def 1.096 | Laval attack 0.878 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Annecy (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Laval xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Laval kick off?
Annecy vs Laval is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 4 December 2026 at Parc des Sports.
Where is Annecy vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Laval part of?
Annecy vs Laval is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 40% chance of winning, Laval a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Annecy and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Laval?
Record (8 meetings): Annecy 3W | Draws 3 | Laval 2W.
What form are Annecy and Laval in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Laval (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.88x the league average against Laval's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Laval's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.89
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.74
1.31
Laval xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
8%
12.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Annecy and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Annecy and 1.31 for Laval, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 20W 8D 17L from 45 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Laval, meanwhile, have gone 9W 16D 20L across 45 games — 0.96 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Annecy by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Laval heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 8W 7D 7L from 22 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Laval's away record stands at 4W 7D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 0.93 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Laval in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 20W 8D 17L in their last 45 games (1.51 PPG), while Laval have gone 9W 16D 20L in their last 45 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Laval away?
Annecy's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.41 PPG; Laval away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Annecy or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Laval in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Laval runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Annecy won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Laval specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Annecy
3
Draws
2
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Laval?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, Laval have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Laval 2-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Laval?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Laval see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 64%, Laval 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Annecy) and 36% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Laval in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Annecy's recent matches and 46% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Annecy's recent games and 36% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Laval tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Laval in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.