Annecy vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Annecy at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Guingamp encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Guingamp make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 2 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Annecy (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Annecy's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Parc des Sports this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Guingamp have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Annecy. A 0.80 PPG lead over Guingamp (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Annecy have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Guingamp in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Annecy lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 1–2 with Guingamp winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 56% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 56% | Guingamp 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.43 xG and Guingamp 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.007 / defence 0.962 | Guingamp attack 0.921 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.244. Data: 41 Annecy games / 41 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Annecy 44% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 28%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 70% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.

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