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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Annecy edge out Guingamp 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Guingamp 1-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.45 xG and Guingamp 1.26 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.12 / defence 0.99 against Guingamp attack 1.09 / defence 1.12, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 40% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 32%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 44%, Guingamp 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Guingamp's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.45 PPG, Guingamp 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights