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Poisson model rates Annecy at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Guingamp make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Annecy (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Annecy's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Parc des Sports this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Guingamp have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Annecy against 1.30 for Guingamp. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Annecy have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Guingamp in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Annecy lead 3W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2025, ended 3–0 with Annecy winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 45% versus Guingamp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 44% | Guingamp 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.45 xG and Guingamp 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.122 / defence 0.989 | Guingamp attack 1.090 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.169. Data: 62 Annecy games / 62 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Annecy 40% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 32%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 60% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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