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Shock result as Estac Troyes defy the odds to beat Annecy 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Annecy 1-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.14 xG and Estac Troyes 0.88 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Estac Troyes outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.16 / defence 0.91 against Estac Troyes attack 0.84 / defence 0.88, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 41% | Draw 31% | Estac Troyes 28%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Estac Troyes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 42%, Estac Troyes 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.50 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights