Annecy 2-2 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dunkerque make the trip to Stade Gaston-Gérard to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Annecy (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade Gaston-Gérard this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dunkerque's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Dunkerque have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dunkerque's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Annecy against 1.20 for Dunkerque. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Annecy 3W, Dunkerque 1W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2025, ended 0–2 with Dunkerque winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Dunkerque — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 40% versus Dunkerque 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 34% | Dunkerque 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.43 xG and Dunkerque 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.011 / defence 0.943 | Dunkerque attack 0.928 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.189. Data: 35 Annecy games / 35 Dunkerque games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Annecy 44% | Draw 30% | Dunkerque 26%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Dunkerque 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 50% | Dunkerque 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 44% | Draw 30% | Dunkerque 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Annecy 1.43 / Dunkerque 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.011 / def 0.943 | Dunkerque attack 0.928 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Annecy (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Dunkerque xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Dunkerque kick off?
Annecy vs Dunkerque kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Annecy 2 - 2 Dunkerque.
Where is Annecy vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Annecy vs Dunkerque part of?
Annecy vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 44% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Annecy and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Dunkerque?
Record (4 meetings): Annecy 3W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 1W.
What form are Annecy and Dunkerque in?
Annecy (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Annecy's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Dunkerque's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (0.93x) against Annecy's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.31
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.47
1.04
Dunkerque xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Annecy and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Annecy and 1.04 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 14W 9D 12L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dunkerque's form line: 18W 6D 11L from 35 games, 1.71 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Dunkerque, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Annecy against 1.71 for Dunkerque. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.82 PPG from 17 outings (9W 4D 4L).
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 5W 4D 8L from 17 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dunkerque's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.37 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Dunkerque
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 14W 9D 12L in their last 35 games (1.46 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 18W 6D 11L in their last 35 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Dunkerque away?
Annecy's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.82 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Annecy or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Annecy won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Annecy
1
Draws
1
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Dunkerque?
From 6 meetings on record, Annecy have won 4, Dunkerque have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Dunkerque 0-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Dunkerque?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 35%, Dunkerque 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Annecy and 24% for Dunkerque.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Dunkerque in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Annecy's recent matches and 47% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Annecy's recent games and 24% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy and Dunkerque share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 2, as Annecy and Dunkerque drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.43 xG and Dunkerque 1.04 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dunkerque outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against Dunkerque attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 44% | Draw 30% | Dunkerque 26%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 34%, Dunkerque 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Dunkerque's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.46 PPG, Dunkerque 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.