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Dunkerque cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Annecy.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque beat Annecy 0-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.39 xG and Dunkerque 1.13 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Dunkerque outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against Dunkerque attack 1.06 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 43% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 31%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Dunkerque win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 54%, Dunkerque 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Dunkerque's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.39 PPG, Dunkerque 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights