Annecy 0-2 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dunkerque make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Monday 27 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Annecy (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Parc des Sports this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dunkerque's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Annecy against 1.70 for Dunkerque. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, Annecy are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 2–0 with Annecy winning.
The historical record gives Annecy a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dunkerque — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 53% versus Dunkerque 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 54% | Dunkerque 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.39 xG and Dunkerque 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.012 / defence 1.056 | Dunkerque attack 1.065 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.007. Data: 57 Annecy games / 57 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 43% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 31%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Dunkerque 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 30% | Dunkerque 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 43% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Annecy 1.39 / Dunkerque 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.012 / def 1.056 | Dunkerque attack 1.065 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Annecy (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Dunkerque xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Dunkerque kick off?
Annecy vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 27 January 2025 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Annecy 0 - 2 Dunkerque.
Where is Annecy vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Dunkerque part of?
Annecy vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 43% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Annecy and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Dunkerque?
Record (3 meetings): Annecy 3W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 0W.
What form are Annecy and Dunkerque in?
Annecy (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Annecy's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Dunkerque's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (1.06x) against Annecy's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.76
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.52
1.13
Dunkerque xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Annecy and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Annecy and 1.13 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 21W 16D 20L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque's form line: 22W 13D 22L from 57 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Annecy against 1.39 for Dunkerque. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.43 PPG from 28 outings (11W 7D 10L).
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 10W 9D 9L from 28 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.12 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 21W 16D 20L in their last 57 games (1.39 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 22W 13D 22L in their last 57 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Dunkerque away?
Annecy's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.43 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Annecy or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Annecy won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Annecy
1
Draws
1
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Dunkerque?
From 6 meetings on record, Annecy have won 4, Dunkerque have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Dunkerque 0-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Dunkerque?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 46%, Dunkerque 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Annecy) and 39% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Annecy's recent matches and 54% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Annecy's recent games and 39% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dunkerque cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Annecy 0-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.39 xG and Dunkerque 1.13 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Dunkerque outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against Dunkerque attack 1.06 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 43% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 31%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Dunkerque win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 54%, Dunkerque 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Dunkerque's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.39 PPG, Dunkerque 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.