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Prediction vindicated as Annecy edge out Clermont Foot 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Clermont Foot 2-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.37 xG and Clermont Foot 0.74 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.06 / defence 0.84 against Clermont Foot attack 0.74 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 52% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 20%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 40%, Clermont Foot 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Clermont Foot's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights