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Poisson model rates Annecy at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Clermont Foot travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 January 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Clermont Foot — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Annecy 1.60 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Annecy have won 2, Clermont Foot 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Annecy winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Annecy in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 43% versus Clermont Foot 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 40% | Clermont Foot 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.37 xG and Clermont Foot 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.057 / defence 0.844 | Clermont Foot attack 0.736 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.187. Data: 53 Annecy games / 53 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Annecy 52% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 20%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Clermont Foot 5.00. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 60% | Clermont Foot 40%.

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