Annecy 2-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Clermont Foot travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 January 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Clermont Foot — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Annecy 1.60 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Annecy have won 2, Clermont Foot 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 43% versus Clermont Foot 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 40% | Clermont Foot 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.37 xG and Clermont Foot 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.057 / defence 0.844 | Clermont Foot attack 0.736 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.187. Data: 53 Annecy games / 53 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 52% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 20%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Clermont Foot 5.00. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 60% | Clermont Foot 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 52% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Annecy 1.37 / Clermont Foot 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.057 / def 0.844 | Clermont Foot attack 0.736 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Annecy (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Clermont Foot xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Annecy vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 January 2026 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Clermont Foot?
Annecy 2 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Annecy vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Clermont Foot part of?
Annecy vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 52% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Annecy and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Clermont Foot?
Record (3 meetings): Annecy 2W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Annecy and Clermont Foot in?
Annecy (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Annecy's attack at 1.06x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.58
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.10
0.74
Clermont Foot xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
5%
19.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Annecy and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Annecy and 0.74 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 21W 13D 19L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot's form line: 12W 18D 23L from 53 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Annecy are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Venue Form
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.69 PPG from 26 outings (12W 8D 6L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 6W 7D 13L from 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.96 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 21W 13D 19L in their last 53 games (1.43 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 12W 18D 23L in their last 53 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Clermont Foot away?
Annecy's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.69 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Annecy or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Annecy's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Annecy
0
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Annecy 2-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Clermont Foot?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 42%, Clermont Foot 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Annecy) and 46% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Annecy's recent matches and 46% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Annecy's recent games and 46% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Annecy edge out Clermont Foot 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Clermont Foot 2-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.37 xG and Clermont Foot 0.74 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.06 / defence 0.84 against Clermont Foot attack 0.74 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 52% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 20%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 40%, Clermont Foot 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.