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Annecy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Amiens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Amiens 2-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.48 xG and Amiens 1.18 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Amiens landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.00 / defence 0.95 against Amiens attack 1.05 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 44% | Draw 26% | Amiens 30%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 40%, Amiens 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Amiens's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.40 PPG, Amiens 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights