Annecy 2-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Amiens travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 January 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Annecy — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 1.40 PPG versus Amiens's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Annecy register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Amiens in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Annecy have won 3, Amiens 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Annecy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Annecy in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Amiens in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 44% versus Amiens 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 40% | Amiens 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.48 xG and Amiens 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.001 / defence 0.951 | Amiens attack 1.055 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.181. Data: 52 Annecy games / 52 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 44% | Draw 26% | Amiens 30%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Amiens 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 60% | Amiens 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 44% | Draw 26% | Amiens 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Annecy 1.48 / Amiens 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.001 / def 0.951 | Amiens attack 1.055 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Annecy (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Amiens xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Amiens kick off?
Annecy vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 January 2026 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Amiens?
Annecy 2 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Annecy vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Amiens part of?
Annecy vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 44% chance of winning, Amiens a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Annecy and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Amiens?
Record (7 meetings): Annecy 3W | Draws 1 | Amiens 3W.
What form are Annecy and Amiens in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Amiens (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Annecy's attack rating (1.00) and Amiens's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.90
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.67
1.18
Amiens xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
7%
14.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Annecy and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Annecy and 1.18 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Annecy's recent record stands at 20W 13D 19L from 52 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 27L across 52 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.40 PPG, Amiens on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 11W 8D 6L from 25 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Amiens's away record stands at 6W 3D 16L across 25 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.15 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Amiens in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 20W 13D 19L in their last 52 games (1.40 PPG), while Amiens have gone 18W 7D 27L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Amiens away?
Annecy's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.64 PPG; Amiens away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Annecy or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Amiens in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2024, when Annecy won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Annecy
1
Draws
3
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Amiens?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 4, Amiens have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Annecy 2-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Amiens?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 44%, Amiens 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Annecy) and 56% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Amiens in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Annecy's recent matches and 52% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Annecy's recent games and 56% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Amiens tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Amiens in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Amiens 2-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.48 xG and Amiens 1.18 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Amiens landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.00 / defence 0.95 against Amiens attack 1.05 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 44% | Draw 26% | Amiens 30%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 40%, Amiens 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Amiens's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.40 PPG, Amiens 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.