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Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Amiens 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Amiens 1-2 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.26 xG and Guingamp 1.48 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against Guingamp attack 1.10 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 32% | Draw 25% | Guingamp 42%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 54%, Guingamp 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Guingamp's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.21 PPG, Guingamp 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights