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Shock result as Amiens defy the odds to beat Guingamp 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Amiens beat Guingamp 3-2 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.26 xG and Guingamp 1.30 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against Guingamp attack 1.11 / defence 1.04, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 36% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 38%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Amiens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 40%, Guingamp 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Guingamp's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.32 PPG, Guingamp 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights