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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to take on Amiens. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 April 2025, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Amiens) versus 1.30 (Guingamp). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Amiens, 2 for Guingamp and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with Guingamp winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Amiens trading profile (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Guingamp trading profile (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 44% versus Guingamp 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 40% | Guingamp 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.26 xG and Guingamp 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.866 / defence 1.078 | Guingamp attack 1.112 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.088. Data: 68 Amiens games / 68 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Amiens 36% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 38%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Guingamp 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 50% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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