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Dominant Estac Troyes run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Amiens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Amiens 0-3 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.20 xG and Estac Troyes 0.93 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Estac Troyes attack 0.93 / defence 0.90, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 42% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 29%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Estac Troyes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 37%, Estac Troyes 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.41 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights