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Dominant Dunkerque run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Amiens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque beat Amiens 1-4 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.17 xG and Dunkerque 1.62 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Dunkerque outscored their 1.62 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.06 / defence 1.26 against Dunkerque attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 27% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 48%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 55%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Dunkerque's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights