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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Dunkerque 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Amiens beat Dunkerque 1-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.42 xG and Dunkerque 1.36 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dunkerque landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.89 / defence 1.23 against Dunkerque attack 1.06 / defence 1.14, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 39% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 36%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 40%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Dunkerque's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.30 PPG, Dunkerque 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights