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Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Bastia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Amiens beat Bastia 1-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.22 xG and Bastia 1.14 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bastia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against Bastia attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 37% | Draw 29% | Bastia 34%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 38%, Bastia 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bastia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.36 PPG, Bastia 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights