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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Amiens defy the odds to beat Annecy 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Amiens beat Annecy 1-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.12 xG and Annecy 1.23 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Annecy landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against Annecy attack 1.11 / defence 0.98, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 33% | Draw 28% | Annecy 39%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Amiens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 38%, Annecy 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Annecy's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.36 PPG, Annecy 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights