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Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Ajaccio.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Ajaccio 0-3 at Stade Michel-Moretti, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.19 xG and Guingamp 1.17 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ajaccio fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Guingamp outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Guingamp attack 1.15 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 36% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 36%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 36%, Guingamp 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajaccio's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Guingamp's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.19 PPG, Guingamp 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights