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Prediction vindicated as Dunkerque edge out Ajaccio 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque beat Ajaccio 1-2 at Stade Michel-Moretti, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.11 xG and Dunkerque 1.24 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Dunkerque attack 1.12 / defence 0.92, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 33% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 39%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 37%, Dunkerque 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ajaccio's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Dunkerque's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.23 PPG, Dunkerque 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Ajaccio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights